Yesterday, November 27th, a Soyuz 2.1a rocket blasted off from Site 31 at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan carrying the Soyuz MS-28 mission, with cosmonauts Sergei Kud-Sverchkov and Sergei Mikayev as well as NASA astronaut Christopher Williams onboard. Following a successful launch, the MS-28 spacecraft docked with the Rassvet module, allowing its crew to join the seven onboard the International Space Station.

Meanwhile, back on Earth, during or after the launch process, damage was incurred to Site 31's mobile service platform underneath it. The platform is used to access the base of a Soyuz 2 series rocket ahead of launch and is rolled out of the way before launch. Roscosmos, managing state enterprise for the Russian space program, released a brief comment via Telegram about the damage:

"The launch pad was inspected, as is done every time a rocket is launched. Damage to several launch pad components was identified." – "The launch pad's condition is currently being assessed. All necessary space components are available for repair, and the damage will be repaired shortly"

Images and video of Site 31 show that claimed damage to components is evident as the service platform is sitting at the bottom of a flame diversion pit in a collapsed and charred pile. With the service platform off its rails under the launch pad, repairs to Site 31 won't be fast, with Anatoly Zak of RussianSpaceWeb estimating the process could take up to two years.

Footage of Site 31 following the Soyuz MS-28 missions launch, via Robert Savitsky on Twitter.

A long repair process may be a major problem for the International Space Station as the crewed Soyuz and cargo Progress (which also refuels/replaces the station's Russian-operated attitude control systems) spacecraft currently launch atop of the Soyuz 2 series of rockets, which only has Site 31 in Baikonur. Other launch facilities for the Soyuz 2 series exist in the northern Plestesk and far-eastern Vostochny cosmodromes but dedicated facilities for spacecraft processing don't. As such, missions could be delayed depending on how long repairs take, with the cargo-carrying Progress MS-33 mission set for late December now likely in 2026. Another crewed Soyuz mission isn't planned until July 2026.

Depending on how fast Roscosmos is looking to fix Site 31, other Soyuz launch pads in Kazakhstan and Russia may contribute parts, but taking those other pads offline for a while. Neighbouring the now-damaged pad is 'Gagarin's Start' Site 1, which has been mothballed since 2019, with some hardware said to have been reused at Site 31 already. Up north in Russia, there are at least two Soyuz pads active in Plesetsk alongside an unused one. Over in the far east of Vostochny, there is a single launch pad for the rocket.

A wildcard option to repair Site 31 would be the dissessambly and shipping of the mobile service platform for the Soyuz 2 series launch pad at the Guiana Space Center, located in French Guiana in South America, with some efforts underway to remove hardware to make way for a single-stick reusable rocket. Russia currently cannot access the Guianan launch site due to sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine, but the European Space Agency, who own the land of the site, and other international partners are invested in the continued operation of the International Space Station into the 2030s, which requires Russian cargo and fuel deliveries. Therefore, it is plausible, although a low possibility, that some hardware from South America could make its way to Baikonur.

Of course, there is the chance that Site 31 remains offline for several years due to underfunding and financial stresses on the Russian space program. That scenario would have the International Space Station limp toward its planned 2030s retirement, if not an earlier one with no refueling of its attitude control system.